Ural IIvs
Orenburg II
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 4 · 9/13/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Orenburg II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ural II 1-1 Orenburg II
Original prediction
Orenburg II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 38.4% | 35.1% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.3% | 22.0% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 36.4% | 42.9% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.60 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Orenburg II
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Orenburg II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00