Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ural II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ural II 1-2 Nosta
Original prediction
Ural II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 40.2% | 46.7% | 6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 23.8% | 24.8% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 35.9% | 28.5% | -7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Ural II
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Ural II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ural IILLDWL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
NostaWWLLW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Ural IINosta
50.6Attack33.3
34.6Defence35.8
32.1Form33.3
40.3Power36.7
2.10xG1.19