Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UPDF · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: UPDF 0-0 URA, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
UPDF 0-1 URA
Original prediction
UPDF
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 12:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 33.3% | 42.8% | 9.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.90 | 30.6% | 31.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.1% | 25.7% | -10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.6 pts
Projected Score
UPDF 0–0 URA
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
UPDF
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
UPDF has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UPDFDLWWD
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
URALDLLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
UPDFURA
19.0Attack27.8
76.2Defence44.4
42.9Form22.2
49.0Power34.5
0.99xG0.52