Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maroons · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: UPDF 0-0 Maroons, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
UPDF 1-0 Maroons
Original prediction
Maroons
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 42.1% | 23.8% | -18.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 30.4% | 30.8% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.24 | 27.4% | 45.4% | 18.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.0 pts
Projected Score
UPDF 0–0 Maroons
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Maroons
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Maroons has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UPDFDLDLD
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MaroonsLWLWL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
UPDFMaroons
26.4Attack40.2
55.2Defence70.1
31.0Form47.1
40.0Power53.2
0.49xG1.03