Universitariovs
FBC Melgar
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Universitario · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Universitario 2-2 FBC Melgar
Original prediction
Universitario
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 51.2% | 41.4% | -9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 29.3% | 27.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.74 | 19.5% | 31.2% | 11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.16 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Universitario
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Universitario has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60