GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 7/19/2023, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Universitario are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Corinthians are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Corinthians hold a 4.8-point power-rating edge (52.4 v 57.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 21% BTTS chance and 12% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

49.7%

Model confidence

49.7%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

UniversitarioWLWWW

GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CorinthiansWWWLL

GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
UniversitarioCorinthians
33.3Attack29.2
70.4Defence75.0
48.1Form58.3
52.4Power57.3
0.63xG0.56
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