Universitariovs
Comerciantes Unidos
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 9/6/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Universitario · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Universitario 2-2 Comerciantes Unidos
Original prediction
Universitario
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 71.7% | 63.1% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.95 | 18.6% | 21.7% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 9.53 | 9.7% | 15.2% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.95 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Universitario
Probability
63.1%
Model confidence
63.1%
Universitario has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80