Bolivia · Primera División · 9/13/2026, 9:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente Petrolero · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Universitario de Vinto 3-1 Independiente Petrolero
Original prediction
Independiente Petrolero
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 48.9% | 35.0% | -13.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.5% | 24.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.53 | 25.7% | 40.5% | 14.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–17%
Predicted outcome
Independiente Petrolero
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Independiente Petrolero has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40