Universidad Catolicavs
Orense SC
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 9/15/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Universidad Catolica · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Universidad Catolica 2-1 Orense SC
Original prediction
Universidad Catolica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 64.0% | 68.9% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.0% | 19.6% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 6.41 | 14.1% | 11.5% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Universidad Catolica
Probability
68.9%
Model confidence
68.9%
Universidad Catolica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80