Universidad Catolicavs
Macara
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 10/11/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Universidad Catolica · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Universidad Catolica 0-1 Macara
Original prediction
Universidad Catolica
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 52.0% | 51.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.2% | 26.6% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 4.19 | 21.7% | 22.3% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Universidad Catolica
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
Universidad Catolica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60