Universidad Catolicavs
Emelec
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 4/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Universidad Catolica · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Universidad Catolica are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Emelec are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Universidad Catolica hold a 14.8-point power-rating edge (59.5 v 44.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 22.1% in the Liga Pro, while Universidad Catolica holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 27% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Universidad Catolica
Probability
61.4%
Model confidence
22.1%
Universidad Catolica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20