Universidad Catolicavs
Aucas
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 9/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Universidad Catolica · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Universidad Catolica 1-0 Aucas, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Universidad Catolica 1-1 Aucas
Original prediction
Universidad Catolica
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 49.1% | 51.0% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.7% | 28.2% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.94 | 23.2% | 20.8% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.30 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Projected Score
Universidad Catolica 1–0 Aucas
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Universidad Catolica
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Universidad Catolica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60