Unitedvs
Mohun Bagan
COMPLETEDIndia · Calcutta Premier Division · 9/14/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mohun Bagan · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
United 1-1 Mohun Bagan
Original prediction
Mohun Bagan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 18:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.72 | 15.8% | 33.0% | 17.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.25 | 21.2% | 24.3% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 1.43 | 63.0% | 42.6% | -20.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Mohun Bagan
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Mohun Bagan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 4 · avg 3.60/0.80
GF 18 · GA 3 · avg 3.60/0.60