United of Manchestervs
Whitby Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
United of Manchester · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
United of Manchester 4-2 Whitby Town
Original prediction
United of Manchester
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 54.5% | 49.5% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.1% | 20.1% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 4.02 | 22.4% | 30.4% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
United of Manchester
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
United of Manchester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80