United of Manchestervs
Ossett United
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
United of Manchester · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
United of Manchester 4-1 Ossett United
Original prediction
United of Manchester
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 70.0% | 42.4% | -27.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.85 | 18.6% | 24.7% | 6.1 pts |
| Away | 7.88 | 11.4% | 33.0% | 21.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
United of Manchester
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
United of Manchester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 10 · avg 3.00/2.00
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20