United of Manchestervs
Altrincham
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
United of Manchester · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
United of Manchester 2-6 Altrincham
Original prediction
United of Manchester
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 October 2026 at 10:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.08 | 29.4% | 46.8% | 17.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.8% | 24.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.98 | 45.7% | 28.9% | -16.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
United of Manchester
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
United of Manchester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80