United of Manchestervs
AFC Emley
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
United of Manchester · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
United of Manchester 1-1 AFC Emley
Original prediction
United of Manchester
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 55.7% | 50.8% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.0% | 24.3% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.20 | 21.3% | 24.9% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.90 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
United of Manchester
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
United of Manchester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 3 · GA 17 · avg 0.60/3.40