United Arab Emiratesvs
Qatar
COMPLETEDWorld · Gulf Cup of Nations · 9/30/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
United Arab Emirates · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
United Arab Emirates 1-1 Qatar
Original prediction
United Arab Emirates
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 50.1% | 44.1% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.2% | 27.4% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.86 | 23.7% | 28.4% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
United Arab Emirates
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
United Arab Emirates has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60