Union St. Gilloisevs
Real Sociedad
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/15/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union St. Gilloise · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union St. Gilloise 1-1 Real Sociedad
Original prediction
Union St. Gilloise
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.49 | 38.0% | 45.6% | 7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 26.0% | 26.2% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 36.0% | 28.2% | -7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Union St. Gilloise
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Union St. Gilloise has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00