Union St. Gilloisevs
OH Leuven
COMPLETEDBelgium · Jupiler Pro League · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union St. Gilloise · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 2-0 (14%), 4-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union St. Gilloise 1-1 OH Leuven
Original prediction
Union St. Gilloise
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 75.8% | 78.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 6.08 | 15.3% | 13.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 10.45 | 8.9% | 8.3% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.08 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.2–014%
- 3.4–011%
Predicted outcome
Union St. Gilloise
Probability
78.0%
Model confidence
78.0%
Union St. Gilloise has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 2 · avg 3.20/0.40
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40