Union St. Gilloisevs
Lommel United
COMPLETEDBelgium · Jupiler Pro League · 9/12/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union St. Gilloise · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union St. Gilloise 5-0 Lommel United
Original prediction
Union St. Gilloise
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 78.9% | 59.9% | -19.0 pts |
| Draw | 6.81 | 13.8% | 21.9% | 8.2 pts |
| Away | 12.67 | 7.4% | 18.2% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Union St. Gilloise
Probability
59.9%
Model confidence
59.9%
Union St. Gilloise has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60