Union St. Gilloisevs
Hapoel Beer Sheva
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/22/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union St. Gilloise · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union St. Gilloise 4-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
Original prediction
Union St. Gilloise
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 68.6% | 52.5% | -16.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.04 | 18.7% | 24.7% | 6.0 pts |
| Away | 7.48 | 12.6% | 22.8% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Union St. Gilloise
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
52.5%
Union St. Gilloise has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60