Union St. GilloisevsFC Lugano

Union St. Gilloise are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while FC Lugano are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 3.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Union St. Gilloise hold a 33.7-point power-rating edge (55.2 v 21.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.8% in the UEFA Europa League, while Union St. Gilloise holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.