Union St. Gilloisevs
Cercle Brugge
COMPLETEDBelgium · Jupiler Pro League · 10/25/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union St. Gilloise · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 4-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union St. Gilloise 5-2 Cercle Brugge
Original prediction
Union St. Gilloise
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.30 | 71.8% | 80.4% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.42 | 17.2% | 12.1% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 8.45 | 11.0% | 7.5% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.4–012%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Union St. Gilloise
Probability
80.4%
Model confidence
80.4%
Union St. Gilloise has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00