Union Santa Fevs
Sarmiento Junin
COMPLETEDArgentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · 8/28/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Santa Fe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union Santa Fe 4-1 Sarmiento Junin
Original prediction
Union Santa Fe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 49.6% | 47.3% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 28.7% | 26.8% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.34 | 21.7% | 25.9% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Union Santa Fe
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Union Santa Fe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00