Union Santa Fevs
Independiente
COMPLETEDArgentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · 9/19/2026, 7:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Santa Fe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union Santa Fe 1-2 Independiente
Original prediction
Union Santa Fe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 38.1% | 41.5% | 3.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 31.2% | 27.1% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 30.8% | 31.4% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Union Santa Fe
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Union Santa Fe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00