Union Santa Fevs
Defensa Y Justicia
COMPLETEDArgentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · 10/10/2026, 12:45:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Santa Fe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union Santa Fe 0-2 Defensa Y Justicia
Original prediction
Union Santa Fe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 42.0% | 39.5% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 29.8% | 28.1% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 28.2% | 32.4% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Union Santa Fe
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Union Santa Fe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60