Union Saint-Gilloise IIvs
Sporting Charleroi II
COMPLETEDBelgium · First Amateur Division · 10/17/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Saint-Gilloise II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union Saint-Gilloise II 2-0 Sporting Charleroi II
Original prediction
Union Saint-Gilloise II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.4% | 45.9% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.0% | 27.7% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.80 | 23.6% | 26.4% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–114%
Predicted outcome
Union Saint-Gilloise II
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Union Saint-Gilloise II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00