Union Magdalenavs
Real Cartagena
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera B · 9/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Magdalena · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union Magdalena 1-1 Real Cartagena
Original prediction
Union Magdalena
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 41.3% | 37.4% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.6% | 30.7% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 30.2% | 31.9% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.20 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Union Magdalena
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Union Magdalena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20