Union MagdalenavsLeones FC

COMPLETED

Colombia · Primera B · 10/11/2026, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Union Magdalena · BTTS No · Under 2.5

Projected score: Union Magdalena 1-0 Leones FC, with an exact score probability of 20%.

Final result

Union Magdalena 2-2 Leones FC

Original prediction

Union Magdalena

Outcome

Incorrect

Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.

Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40

Market	Odds	Implied probability	Model probability	Difference
Home	1.35	66.9%	53.3%	-13.7 pts
Draw	4.23	21.4%	26.5%	5.1 pts
Away	7.78	11.7%	20.2%	8.6 pts

Historical EV

1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -

Value score

-13.7 pts

Projected Score

Union Magdalena 1–0 Leones FC

Exact score probability: 20%

Predicted outcome

Union Magdalena

Probability

53.3%

Model confidence

53.3%

Union Magdalena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Union MagdalenaDWDDW

GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00

BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5

Leones FCDLLDL

GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5

Union MagdalenaLeones FC

46.9Attack20.5

67.7Defence47.4

55.2Form25.6

57.9Power34.2

1.70xG0.40