Union La Caleravs
D. La Serena
COMPLETEDChile · Primera División · 8/31/2026, 10:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
D. La Serena · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union La Calera 0-1 D. La Serena
Original prediction
D. La Serena
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 42.3% | 34.4% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.6% | 24.4% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 30.0% | 41.3% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
D. La Serena
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
D. La Serena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80