GGOALVIO

Chile · Primera División · 4/14/2026, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Union La Calera are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Concepción are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Concepción hold a 6.7-point power-rating edge (40.8 v 47.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.0% in the Primera División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

36.0%

Model confidence

36.0%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Union La CaleraLDLWL

GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
ConcepciónLLLWD

GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Union La CaleraConcepción
37.0Attack37.0
44.4Defence57.4
35.2Form42.6
40.8Power47.4
1.00xG1.15
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