Union Comerciovs
Ayacucho FC
COMPLETEDPeru · Segunda División · 10/12/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Comercio · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Union Comercio 1-0 Ayacucho FC, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Union Comercio 5-0 Ayacucho FC
Original prediction
Union Comercio
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 61.4% | 49.7% | -11.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 23.8% | 29.1% | 5.3 pts |
| Away | 6.06 | 14.8% | 21.2% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Projected Score
Union Comercio 1–0 Ayacucho FC
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Union Comercio
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Union Comercio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00