Union Bresciavs
Desenzano Calvina
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/6/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Brescia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Union Brescia 1-0 Desenzano Calvina, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Union Brescia 1-0 Desenzano Calvina
Original prediction
Union Brescia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.8% | 48.8% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.4% | 29.6% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 5.75 | 15.8% | 21.6% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Projected Score
Union Brescia 1–0 Desenzano Calvina
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Union Brescia
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Union Brescia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80