Union Bresciavs
Cittadella
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/24/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Union Brescia 0-0 Cittadella, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Union Brescia 2-1 Cittadella
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 45.7% | 36.3% | -9.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.7% | 31.5% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.55 | 25.6% | 32.3% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Projected Score
Union Brescia 0–0 Cittadella
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.5%
Model confidence
36.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Union BresciaLWDDW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CittadellaWWLWW
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Union BresciaCittadella
51.9Attack55.6
74.1Defence85.2
59.3Form88.9
62.4Power78.7
0.82xG0.87