Union Berlinvs
SV Elversberg
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SV Elversberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union Berlin 1-0 SV Elversberg
Original prediction
SV Elversberg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 39.0% | 28.9% | -10.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.8% | 23.8% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 34.1% | 47.4% | 13.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
SV Elversberg
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
SV Elversberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 17 · avg 1.00/3.40
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80