Union Berlinvs
FC Schalke 04
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/11/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Berlin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04
Original prediction
Union Berlin
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 40.8% | 39.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.7% | 26.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 32.5% | 34.1% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Union Berlin
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Union Berlin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 15 · avg 2.40/3.00
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20