Union Berlinvs
Borussia Dortmund
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/17/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Borussia Dortmund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Union Berlin 0-0 Borussia Dortmund
Original prediction
Borussia Dortmund
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.22 | 18.2% | 16.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.36 | 21.8% | 19.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 1.58 | 60.1% | 63.5% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Borussia Dortmund
Probability
63.5%
Model confidence
63.5%
Borussia Dortmund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00