União São Joãovs
Grêmio Prudente
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Paulista · 10/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: União São João 0-0 Grêmio Prudente, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
União São João 2-1 Grêmio Prudente
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 37.1% | 38.2% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.81 | 32.3% | 32.8% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.7% | 29.0% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Projected Score
União São João 0–0 Grêmio Prudente
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.8%
Model confidence
38.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
União São JoãoDDWLW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Grêmio PrudenteDWDWW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
União São JoãoGrêmio Prudente
36.4Attack45.5
72.7Defence63.6
48.5Form54.5
54.4Power55.8
0.85xG0.69