União Santarémvs
Vitória de Sernache
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 10/25/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
União Santarém · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
União Santarém 2-1 Vitória de Sernache
Original prediction
União Santarém
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 43.8% | 41.8% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.0% | 29.2% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.32 | 27.2% | 28.9% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
União Santarém
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
União Santarém has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20