União Santarémvs
Lusitano Évora 1911
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 10/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lusitano Évora 1911 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
União Santarém 3-0 Lusitano Évora 1911
Original prediction
Lusitano Évora 1911
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.96 | 30.5% | 31.0% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.7% | 30.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 39.8% | 38.4% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Lusitano Évora 1911
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Lusitano Évora 1911 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20