União Santarémvs
GIL Vicente
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/14/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
União Santarém · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
União Santarém 2-3 GIL Vicente
Original prediction
União Santarém
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.37 | 12.4% | 37.5% | 25.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 21.7% | 25.3% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.39 | 65.9% | 37.3% | -28.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
25.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
União Santarém
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
União Santarém has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00