União Leiria U23vs
Marítimo U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 9/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
União Leiria U23 · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
União Leiria U23 2-0 Marítimo U23
Original prediction
União Leiria U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.0% | 37.8% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.4% | 28.0% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 27.5% | 34.2% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
União Leiria U23
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
União Leiria U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20