União Leiria U23vs
Gil Vicente U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 9/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
União Leiria U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
União Leiria U23 0-1 Gil Vicente U23
Original prediction
União Leiria U23
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 42.5% | 47.5% | 5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.4% | 25.8% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.89 | 31.1% | 26.7% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
União Leiria U23
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
União Leiria U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00