União Leiria U23vs
Benfica U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 9/14/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
União Leiria U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
União Leiria U23 1-2 Benfica U23
Original prediction
União Leiria U23
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 32.6% | 43.8% | 11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.4% | 26.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 41.0% | 29.9% | -11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
União Leiria U23
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
União Leiria U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00