União de Leiriavs
Tondela
COMPLETEDPortugal · Segunda Liga · 8/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
União de Leiria · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
União de Leiria 2-0 Tondela
Original prediction
União de Leiria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 42.2% | 41.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.6% | 27.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.14 | 29.2% | 31.0% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
União de Leiria
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
União de Leiria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60