União de Leiriavs
Portimonense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Segunda Liga · 9/6/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
União de Leiria · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
União de Leiria 1-0 Portimonense
Original prediction
União de Leiria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 48.0% | 53.9% | 5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.4% | 25.3% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.74 | 24.6% | 20.8% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
União de Leiria
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
União de Leiria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00