União de Leiriavs
Bragança
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
União de Leiria · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
União de Leiria 2-1 Bragança
Original prediction
União de Leiria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.18 | 77.0% | 46.6% | -30.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.88 | 15.5% | 24.0% | 8.5 pts |
| Away | 12.12 | 7.5% | 29.4% | 21.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-30.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
União de Leiria
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
União de Leiria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60