Unión Adarvevs
Móstoles
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · 10/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Móstoles · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Unión Adarve 2-1 Móstoles
Original prediction
Móstoles
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.98 | 30.3% | 30.5% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.6% | 26.5% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 41.1% | 43.0% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Móstoles
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Móstoles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40