Unia Skierniewicevs
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 9/13/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Unia Skierniewice 3-2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Original prediction
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 43.6% | 29.6% | -14.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 25.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.97 | 30.5% | 45.1% | 14.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60